Consistent Payrolls – Confirmation

Posted - Filed under Payroll Survey.

Last week’s annual benchmark revision to the Payroll Survey released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics finally removed the erroneous and significant surge that was introduced a year ago. This was the 423,000 jobs gain for November 2014 which we referred to in our Consistent Payrolls Series introduction early last year.  This number was a… Read more » Read More

Payrolls Watch: Growth Breaks Trend

Posted - Filed under Payroll Survey, Uncategorized.

Updating our look at the October 2015 payrolls, where we compared the year-to-year growth with the rolling 3-month growth. The three-month growth rate (annualized) has broken through to the upside of the still down-trending year-over-year growth rate. The annual percentage growth to December 2015 of 1.9% is still below the 2.3% recorded for the year… Read more » Read More

Payroll Growth Is Not Growing

Posted - Filed under Payroll Survey.

The past two months’ seasonally adjusted changes are being viewed as signs of a robust pick-up in growth. But in the medium to long term perspective that is needed with so much month-to-month noise, revision and adjustment – growth is slowing. On a percentage basis, both year-over-year, and a rolling quarterly growth (annualized) are both… Read more » Read More

JOLTS vs Payroll Survey

Posted - Filed under JOLTS, Payroll Survey.

We compare and contrast the two surveys, looking for clues to the October “surge” in Payrolls. The new, September JOLTS data neither confirms nor denies. Read More

Why All The Fuss?

Posted - Filed under Payroll Survey.

Much was made of the October Payrolls Survey’s headline growth figure of 271,000 in comparison with the growth rates for August and September of 153,000 and 137,000 respectively. Read More