The reported October jobs gains surprise on the upside. Looking at the nature of the revisions to August and September, however, raises questions about the sensitivity of the seasonal adjustment process to revised data. Read More
Posts Categorized: Payroll Survey
October Payrolls: Seasonal Factor Biases
Strong biases in the mathematics place downward pressure on October numbers. Bias towards baseline growth of less than 100,000 jobs – even without any private sector furloughs due to the government shutdown. Read More
September Payrolls up by only 148,000
However, revisions likely to bring back 25,000+ jobs. July jobs growth now reported as 89,000 – originally estimated as a 162,000 gain. State and local government jobs gain a seasonal adjustment artifact, as expected. Read More
September Payrolls – Trend Forecast
The mathematical trend is for an increase of 163,000 private-sector, non-farm jobs in September. Our further analysis suggests a possible upside bias to 173,000. October growth to be hit hard by local government seasonal “catch-up”. Read More
Payroll Survey: 169k Non-farm jobs added in August
Government job growth was flattered by >10,000 new teaching jobs as seasonal adjustment struggles with “back to school”. Similar SA problems with three private sector areas tended to cancel each other out. Read More
