Here are the mathematical trend numbers which are produced in advance by the ExpliStats modeling of the BLS seasonal adjustment process. The trends here are what could be expected for September, given the seasonally-adjusted BLS trends established through August. Read More
Posts Categorized: Payroll Survey
Employment/Unemployment – Short Review
Seasonal adjustment difficulties due to calendar issues likely understated August payroll growth. Conversely the improvement in U3 was due mostly to seasonally-adjusted participation rate of students, largely affected by when school restarted in August. Read More
Payroll Employment – Trend Forecasts
Here are the mathematical trend numbers which are produced in advance by the ExpliStats modeling of the BLS seasonal adjustment process. The trends here are what could be expected for August, given the seasonally-adjusted BLS trends established through July. Read More
July Payrolls up 209k (10% below trend)
This morning’s BLS Payrolls Report estimated 209,000 more jobs in July (on a seasonally adjusted basis). This is 10% below our Trend extrapolation of 232,000 and the the consensus forecast of 233,000. Read More
Payroll Survey – Mathematical Trend calls for 232,000 more jobs in July
The trend component of the mathematical model producing the BLS’s Payrolls Survey is currently pointing to 232,000 more jobs in July. We breakdown the numbers by sectors, and review last month’s trend numbers compared to the actual BLS survey report. Read More
June Payrolls Preview
Total Payrolls to gain 243,000 jobs (current consensus figure: 220,000), Private non-farm to gain 226,000 jobs. Breakdown by industry included, review of various forecasts and estimates, including last month’s trend forecast Read More
Payroll Employment regains pre-recession levels, but …
Jobs lagging behind population growth and labor force (itself having fallen sharply as a percentage of the populaiation). Read More