According to the BLS Survey, Non-Farm Payroll employment grew by 217,000, and within that figure, Private sector payrolls by 216,000 in May.
Our purely mathematical “trend forecast” based on the BLS’s model for seasonal adjustment, had given 235,000 and 231,000 respectively as the continuation of trend for those payrolls. Construction and Health Care came in below and above trend, respectively. Read More
Total Payrolls to gain 235,000 jobs (consensus figure: 213,000), Private non-farm to gain 231,000 jobs. Breakdown by industry included, review of various forecasts and estimates, including last month’s trend forecast. Read More
For those interested in more detail behind the following, please contact us – we will be happy to discuss further. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its April Payrolls Survey on Friday, May 2nd. Barring revisions to March and February numbers the underlying mathematical trend projects an increase of 218,000 jobs in April… Read more » Read More
Mathematical biases in the seasonal adjustment process are used briefly to examine the projected trend for March’s BLS Payrolls Report (Friday, April 4th). Read More
Mathematical biases in the seasonal adjustment process are used to examine the projected trend for February’s BLS Payrolls Report (Friday 7th). Revisions or reversals to two major sector move in January may impact the trend. Read More
Way below expectations. Only the Retail sector showed decent growth. November’s gain revised up by 38,000 though. Read More
196,000 in the private sector. Published revisions to prior months total gains were minimal. Read More