As a by-product of the Explistats Consistent Payrolls Series, we obtain the mathematical seasonal adjustments (SA) factors predicted for the coming months, superimposed, with their quirks, on the underlying statistical trend. Read More

# Posts Categorized: Forecasts

### December Payrolls: Trend Forecasts only 214,000 more jobs.

Seasonal Adjustment biased to much lower growth than November’s 321,000, and lower yet than the consensus forecast for December of a 245,000 gain. Read More

### November Payrolls: Trend Forecasts 232,000 more jobs.

Seasonal Adjustment biased to growth slightly higher than prior month. and matches consensus of 230,000 almost exactly. Read More

### Payroll Survey Preview

Here are the mathematical trend numbers which are produced in advance by the ExpliStats modeling of the BLS seasonal adjustment process. The trends here are what could be expected for September, given the seasonally-adjusted BLS trends established through August. Read More

### Payroll Employment – Trend Forecasts

Here are the mathematical trend numbers which are produced in advance by the ExpliStats modeling of the BLS seasonal adjustment process. The trends here are what could be expected for August, given the seasonally-adjusted BLS trends established through July. Read More