Posted - Filed under Payroll Survey, Release Preview.

ExpliStats Trend Estimates for June 2014

Breakdown of May Payroll forecasts

Click to enlarge

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the results of their Payroll Employment Survey for June 2014 on Thursday, July 3rd.

Here are the mathematical trend numbers which are produced in advance by the ExpliStats modeling of the BLS seasonal adjustment process. The trends here are what could be expected for June, given the seasonally-adjusted BLS trends established through May.

For June 2014:

Total Non-Farm Payrolls to gain 243,000 jobs

Private Non-Farm Payrolls to gain 226,000 jobs

The bar chart on the right breaks out these numbers in to the various component industries.

Often, the eventual consensus outlook is close to the trend, but the consensus keeps changing up to the point of the new data release; the trend, however, is set based as of the prior month’s release. Even with the late revisions to the Consensus, though, the Trend Model is a better predictor of the headline payroll changes.

The current (June 26th) average consensus figure for the change in Total Payrolls from economists polled by Marketwatch is for a gain of 220,000 jobs.


Last Month’s Trend Forecast was compared with actual BLS estimates in this post:  May Payroll Employment – Trend Forecast Reviewed

Comparison of past Trend Forecasts with other private surveys and with actual reported BLS payrolls.


In the two histograms below we compare the last few months’ of forecasts and estimates from:

– ExpliStats Trend

– BLS Actual Payroll Survey

– Consensus of Economists polled by Bloomberg

– The ADP Payroll Report (Private sector jobs only)


Click to enlarge


Click to enlarge