As a by-product of the Explistats Consistent Payrolls Series, we obtain the mathematical seasonal adjustments (SA) factors predicted for the coming months, superimposed, with their quirks, on the underlying statistical trend. Read More
Posts Categorized: Release Preview
October Payrolls: Trend Forecasts only 180,000 more jobs.
Seasonal Adjustment biased to growth lower than prior month and consensus. Currently, the consensus is averaging a 235,000 gain. Read More
Payroll Survey Preview
Here are the mathematical trend numbers which are produced in advance by the ExpliStats modeling of the BLS seasonal adjustment process. The trends here are what could be expected for September, given the seasonally-adjusted BLS trends established through August. Read More
Payroll Survey – Mathematical Trend calls for 232,000 more jobs in July
The trend component of the mathematical model producing the BLS’s Payrolls Survey is currently pointing to 232,000 more jobs in July. We breakdown the numbers by sectors, and review last month’s trend numbers compared to the actual BLS survey report. Read More
June Payrolls Preview
Total Payrolls to gain 243,000 jobs (current consensus figure: 220,000), Private non-farm to gain 226,000 jobs. Breakdown by industry included, review of various forecasts and estimates, including last month’s trend forecast Read More
May Payrolls Preview
Total Payrolls to gain 235,000 jobs (consensus figure: 213,000), Private non-farm to gain 231,000 jobs. Breakdown by industry included, review of various forecasts and estimates, including last month’s trend forecast. Read More
April Jobs Report Preview: Trend calls for 215,000 more Private Sector jobs.
For those interested in more detail behind the following, please contact us – we will be happy to discuss further. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its April Payrolls Survey on Friday, May 2nd. Barring revisions to March and February numbers the underlying mathematical trend projects an increase of 218,000 jobs in April… Read more » Read More