Headline U.3 rose from 7.2% to 7.3%. However, more precise, two-decimal rate shows modest 0.04% rise. Furloughed government workers contribution not known, but half of what it should have been due to reporting confusion. Read More
Posts Categorized: Employment
October Payrolls surprise with 204,000 gain.
The reported October jobs gains surprise on the upside. Looking at the nature of the revisions to August and September, however, raises questions about the sensitivity of the seasonal adjustment process to revised data. Read More
October Payrolls: Seasonal Factor Biases
Strong biases in the mathematics place downward pressure on October numbers. Bias towards baseline growth of less than 100,000 jobs – even without any private sector furloughs due to the government shutdown. Read More
September Payrolls up by only 148,000
However, revisions likely to bring back 25,000+ jobs. July jobs growth now reported as 89,000 – originally estimated as a 162,000 gain. State and local government jobs gain a seasonal adjustment artifact, as expected. Read More
September Unemployment: 7.24% (down from 7.28%)
Headline number, to one decimal place fell from 7.2% to 7.1%, change of -0.1%. The actual change of -0.04% was attributable mostly to a net outflow from the labor force. Read More
September Payrolls – Trend Forecast
The mathematical trend is for an increase of 163,000 private-sector, non-farm jobs in September. Our further analysis suggests a possible upside bias to 173,000. October growth to be hit hard by local government seasonal “catch-up”. Read More
Unemployment Rate falls 12bp to 7.28%
However, the rate would have risen by 15 basis points but for people leaving the labor force. Overall employment (seasonally adjusted) actually dropped by 115,000 according to the BLS’ Household Survey. (c.f. 169,000 increase in Non-Farm jobs produced by the BLS’ Payroll Survey) Read More