This morning’s BLS Payrolls Report estimated 209,000 more jobs in July (on a seasonally adjusted basis). This is 10% below our Trend extrapolation of 232,000 and the the consensus forecast of 233,000. Read More
Posts Categorized: Employment
Payroll Survey – Mathematical Trend calls for 232,000 more jobs in July
The trend component of the mathematical model producing the BLS’s Payrolls Survey is currently pointing to 232,000 more jobs in July. We breakdown the numbers by sectors, and review last month’s trend numbers compared to the actual BLS survey report. Read More
June Payrolls Preview
Total Payrolls to gain 243,000 jobs (current consensus figure: 220,000), Private non-farm to gain 226,000 jobs. Breakdown by industry included, review of various forecasts and estimates, including last month’s trend forecast Read More
U3 Unemployment – Labor force and Employment Ratios
The Unemployment rate was unchanged in May (to one decimal place). The slightly good news is that this was because both the employment ratio and the labor force participation rate both improved (very slightly) in May. Read More
Payroll Employment regains pre-recession levels, but …
Jobs lagging behind population growth and labor force (itself having fallen sharply as a percentage of the populaiation). Read More
May Payroll Employment – Trend Forecast Reviewed
According to the BLS Survey, Non-Farm Payroll employment grew by 217,000, and within that figure, Private sector payrolls by 216,000 in May.
Our purely mathematical “trend forecast” based on the BLS’s model for seasonal adjustment, had given 235,000 and 231,000 respectively as the continuation of trend for those payrolls. Construction and Health Care came in below and above trend, respectively. Read More
May Payrolls Preview
Total Payrolls to gain 235,000 jobs (consensus figure: 213,000), Private non-farm to gain 231,000 jobs. Breakdown by industry included, review of various forecasts and estimates, including last month’s trend forecast. Read More