The reported October jobs gains surprise on the upside. Looking at the nature of the revisions to August and September, however, raises questions about the sensitivity of the seasonal adjustment process to revised data. Read More
Posts Categorized: Release Observations
September CPI-W inflation falls to 1.0%
Prices rise in September but annual inflation falls as Sep. 2012 drops out of the measure. CPI-U up 0.18% in the month, up 1.18% over the year. Read More
Retail Sales: Down 0.1% in September
But, excluding seasonally volatile Motor Vehicles sales, the total figure is up 0.4%. Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers plunged by $1.8bn In Sept. while all other sectors combined to add $1.3bn to the monthly sales figure. Read More
Industrial Production: Up 0.57% in September
But of that, 0.42% came from the volatile electricity utilities index. Manufacturing and Mining growth rates were muted. Read More
September Payrolls up by only 148,000
However, revisions likely to bring back 25,000+ jobs. July jobs growth now reported as 89,000 – originally estimated as a 162,000 gain. State and local government jobs gain a seasonal adjustment artifact, as expected. Read More
September Unemployment: 7.24% (down from 7.28%)
Headline number, to one decimal place fell from 7.2% to 7.1%, change of -0.1%. The actual change of -0.04% was attributable mostly to a net outflow from the labor force. Read More
Prices rise 0.09% in August, but CPI-U inflation falls to 1.52%
Large drop from July’s year-to-year inflation rate of 1.96% due mostly to last August’s large price increases dropping out of the rate calculation. Read More