This morning’s BLS Payrolls Report estimated 209,000 more jobs in July (on a seasonally adjusted basis). This is 10% below our Trend extrapolation of 232,000 and the the consensus forecast of 233,000. Read More
Posts Categorized: Release Observations
GDP 2nd Quarter 4% Annualized. Benchmark revision.
GDP was estimated to have grown at a rate of 4.0% annualized n the 2nd quarter of 2014, following a (revised) drop of 2.1% in the 1st quarter. Last month, the estimate of Q1’s drop was 2.9%. Read More
CPI-U: Index rose by 0.26% in June, driven mainly by gas prices
Motor fuel contributed the bulk of June’s increase in the All Items index for CPI-U, while the year-over-year inflation dropped slightly, though staying at 2.1% when rounded to one decimal place. Read More
June Residential Construction. Down, but within the noise range.
June starts down 9.1% due entirely to drop in South in both single-family and apartment buildings. South starts look out of line with permits. Overall though, trends can still be said to be intact at national average level: flat for all structure sizes over the past 18 months. We also take a look at the relative size of recent revisions. Read More
U3 Unemployment – Labor force and Employment Ratios
The Unemployment rate was unchanged in May (to one decimal place). The slightly good news is that this was because both the employment ratio and the labor force participation rate both improved (very slightly) in May. Read More
Payroll Employment regains pre-recession levels, but …
Jobs lagging behind population growth and labor force (itself having fallen sharply as a percentage of the populaiation). Read More
May Payroll Employment – Trend Forecast Reviewed
According to the BLS Survey, Non-Farm Payroll employment grew by 217,000, and within that figure, Private sector payrolls by 216,000 in May.
Our purely mathematical “trend forecast” based on the BLS’s model for seasonal adjustment, had given 235,000 and 231,000 respectively as the continuation of trend for those payrolls. Construction and Health Care came in below and above trend, respectively. Read More