GDP was estimated to have grown at a rate of 4.0% annualized n the 2nd quarter of 2014, following a (revised) drop of 2.1% in the 1st quarter. Last month, the estimate of Q1’s drop was 2.9%. Read More
Posts By: xps
CPI-U: Index rose by 0.26% in June, driven mainly by gas prices
Motor fuel contributed the bulk of June’s increase in the All Items index for CPI-U, while the year-over-year inflation dropped slightly, though staying at 2.1% when rounded to one decimal place. Read More
Payroll Survey – Mathematical Trend calls for 232,000 more jobs in July
The trend component of the mathematical model producing the BLS’s Payrolls Survey is currently pointing to 232,000 more jobs in July. We breakdown the numbers by sectors, and review last month’s trend numbers compared to the actual BLS survey report. Read More
A review of this week’s other releases, and revisions
Retail Sales, Producer Price Index and Industrial Production. (See previous post for Residential Construction.) Charts of past few months’ revisions included. Read More
June Residential Construction. Down, but within the noise range.
June starts down 9.1% due entirely to drop in South in both single-family and apartment buildings. South starts look out of line with permits. Overall though, trends can still be said to be intact at national average level: flat for all structure sizes over the past 18 months. We also take a look at the relative size of recent revisions. Read More
June Payrolls Preview
Total Payrolls to gain 243,000 jobs (current consensus figure: 220,000), Private non-farm to gain 226,000 jobs. Breakdown by industry included, review of various forecasts and estimates, including last month’s trend forecast Read More
U3 Unemployment – Labor force and Employment Ratios
The Unemployment rate was unchanged in May (to one decimal place). The slightly good news is that this was because both the employment ratio and the labor force participation rate both improved (very slightly) in May. Read More