ExpliStats

Economic Statistics Made Explicit

Payroll Survey Preview

Here are the mathematical trend numbers which are produced in advance by the ExpliStats modeling of the BLS seasonal adjustment process. The trends here are what could be expected for September, given the seasonally-adjusted BLS trends established through August.

CPI-U index drops 0.2% in August.

Gas prices drop 4.1% and contribute 0.25% drop to the index. Annual CPI-U inflation now at 1.71%.
CPI-W inflaiton rate now 1.60%.

Employment/Unemployment – Short Review

Seasonal adjustment difficulties due to calendar issues likely understated August payroll growth. Conversely the improvement in U3 was due mostly to seasonally-adjusted participation rate of students, largely affected by when school restarted in August.