Motor fuel contributed the bulk of June’s increase in the All Items index for CPI-U, while the year-over-year inflation dropped slightly, though staying at 2.1% when rounded to one decimal place.
The trend component of the mathematical model producing the BLS’s Payrolls Survey is currently pointing to 232,000 more jobs in July. We breakdown the numbers by sectors, and review last month’s trend numbers compared to the actual BLS survey report.
Retail Sales, Producer Price Index and Industrial Production. (See previous post for Residential Construction.) Charts of past few months’ revisions included.
June starts down 9.1% due entirely to drop in South in both single-family and apartment buildings. South starts look out of line with permits. Overall though, trends can still be said to be intact at national average level: flat for all structure sizes over the past 18 months. We also take a look at the relative size of recent revisions.
Total Payrolls to gain 243,000 jobs (current consensus figure: 220,000), Private non-farm to gain 226,000 jobs. Breakdown by industry included, review of various forecasts and estimates, including last month’s trend forecast