Mathematical biases in the seasonal adjustment process are used to examine the projected trend for February’s BLS Payrolls Report (Friday 7th). Revisions or reversals to two major sector move in January may impact the trend.
Another big first revision. GDP growth in 4th quarter revised down by 26%. (3rd quarter first revision was up 27%).
New York metro area year/year household energy prices up 9%. Los Angeles metro’s down by 1%.
Weather related household energy costs contributed 0.10% of the monthly rise of 0.14% in the CPI-U. Year to year inflation rose slightly to 1.58% (from a December rate of 1.50%).
Regional pattern of single-family home construction points to possible winter weather as cause for slow-down.