Retail Sales Rounding Doubles Growth

Posted - Filed under Data News, Retail Sales.

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From the Census Department’s Retail Trade Report:
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $447.3 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month, and 1.7 percent (±0.7%) above October 2014. Total sales for the August 2015 through October 2015 period were up 2.0 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago.
Chart of Retail Sales Growth

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Growth to more decimal places was actually 0.0501%. That 0.0001% made the difference between the headline growth of 0.1% and what would otherwise have been 0.0%, flat. Excluding Gasoline sales, total sales did rise 0.08% or 0.1% to one decimal place. Revisions to the prior two month’s reporting included a change of -0.12% for September . See below. Total sales volume rose by $224 billion , with the biggest contributors being:
  • Nonstore Retailers sales rose by $570 billion (1.4%).
  • Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers sales fell by $476 billion (-0.5%).
  • Gasoline Stations sales fell by $309 billion (-0.9%).
  • Food Services & Drinking Places sales rose by $240 billion (0.5%).
These are shown graphically in the bar chart below.
Chart of Retail Sales Components

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Chart of Revisions to Retail Sales

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Revisions to Prior Months

Retail Sales for September were revised down by $569 billion , changing that month’s reported increase of 0.10% to a decrease of 0.02% . August sales were revised but not significantly, down by $86 billion .
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