July Payrolls up 209k (10% below trend)

Posted - Filed under Payroll Survey, Release Observations.

Payrolls Growth

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This morning’s BLS Payrolls Report estimated 209,000 more jobs in July (on a seasonally adjusted basis).  This is 10% below our Trend extrapolation of 232,000 and the the consensus forecast of 233,000.

June’s initially reported gain of 288,000 was revised up marginally today by the BLS, to a gain of 298,000.  (The revision to May’s gain must be discounted because of the oddities of BLS reporting.)

For breakdowns of the data in tables and charts visit our Payrolls Survey page.

Total Private non-farm jobs increased by 198,000.



Comparison of Actual vs Trend Extrapolation

 

payroll-forecasts

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Our Trend numbers of last month (produced prior to consensus) are shown in the figure to the left, in red.  The actual BLS numbers are shown in blue.

Of note are the differences in the following sectors:

Manufacturing above trend (mainly in Durable Goods

)Trade below trend (interestingly, mainly in Durable Goods which saw a loss of jobs)

Health Services (mainly in Educational – a rather volatile series)

(Please click on these links above for time-series charts.)

 

The Trend Extrapolation for August will be published later today or Monday.